Week 6 was another tough week as we took had losing records across the board on our pick sets. We continue to see odd trends in the 2019 season. Home teams are losing at a much higher rate than we have seen in the past decade. Favorites are covering spreads far less than trended data as well. The past 2 weeks in general have highlighted some of these odd trends and it has shown up in our picks. Our data points are getting beat, but that’s something that happens when you’re gambling on sports.
Straight up: 6-8 (56-35-1)
Against the Spread: 6-8 (52-40)
Points Totals: 6-6-2 (47-41-3)
Pick of the Week: Cincinnati (+11) covering against Baltimore
Failure of the Week: Dallas (-7.5) over NY Jets
Home Teams: 7-7 (6-8 ATS) – 41-50-1 (34-58)
Favorites: 8-6 (5-9 ATS) – 56-35-1 (38-54)
Over/Under: 6 OVER – 6 UNDER – 2 PUSH (41 O – 47 U – 4 P)
Weekly Game Breakdowns
New England Patriots 35 New York Giants 14
Our Picks: New England (W ) – New England -17.5 (W ) – Under 41.5 (L)
This week’s Thursday night game played out pretty close to what was expected. Despite starting out a bit slow and letting the Giants hang around for awhile, the Patriots pulled away late and covered the spread pretty easily. The Patriots defense continues to impress, as they held the Giants offense to only a touchdown. This especially came in handy this week, as the Pats offense was not their typical dominant selves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Carolina Panthers 37
Our Picks: Carolina (W ) – Carolina -2.5 (W ) – Under 47.5 (L)
The Carolina Panthers continue to have success without Cam Newton at quarterback. Cam remains out with a foot injury, and his replacement Kyle Allen has won 4 straight games to lead the Panthers back to a 4-2 record. The Panthers controlled this one throughout and led us to have a fairly success pick set, as they hit on the Money Line as well as covered the spread.
Cleveland Browns 28 Seattle Seahawks 32
Our Picks: Seattle (W ) – Seattle -2 (W ) – Over 46 (W )
Cleveland got off to a hot start and grabbed an early lead from Seattle. Throughout the first half I was chalking this game up as a lot pick. However, the Seahawks did what the Seahawks do, and kept grinding. Seattle clawed their way back into the game and finished the Browns off in a high scoring affair. Seattle improves to 5-1 on the season, while the Browns drop to 2-4 as they continue to work on figuring out whats wrong with the team.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Houston Texans 31
Our Picks: Kansas City (L) – Kansas City -4.5 (L) – Over 55 (Push)
Kansas City has now dropped back-to-back games and they don’t look like the dominating force that won 4 straight games to start the season. Patrick Mahomes has definitely been fighting some pain and his productivity has been slightly hampered. What is more concerning is the lack of defense for the Chiefs. If the Chiefs look to compete for the AFC title, they will need to be able to step up defensively when the offense isn’t performing at a high level. We picked the Chiefs to have a bounce back game this week, and that did not happen. We will have to wait another week to see if the Chiefs can get things back on track.
Miami Dolphins 16 Washington Redskins 17
Our Picks: Washington (W ) – Washington -3 (L) – Over 41.5 (L)
Washington finally got their first win of the season against the lowly Miami Dolphins. Washington was set to cover the 3 point spread as they were up by 7 points as time was expiring. Miami was able to score a final touchdown and then elected to go for 2 to win the game. The 2-point conversion was unsuccessful and the Dolphins remain winless. That final touchdown hurt our pick, as Miami was able to pull off the backdoor cover and get within the 3 point spread.
Minnesota Vikings 38 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Our Picks: Philadelphia (L) – Philadelphia +3 (L) – Under 44 (L)
This game was all Minnesota all day long. Our picks favored the Eagles to come out strong and take advantage of a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent offensively all season. Well, that didn’t quite work out this week as the Viking offense was firing on all cylinders. This upset was not meant to be and we took one of the uglier losses of the week with our Philly pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 New Orleans Saints 13
Our Picks: New Orleans (W ) – New Orleans +1 (W ) – Under 44 (W )
A lot of people were riding the Jaguars bandwagon heading into this game. I was not one of those people. New Orleans ended up getting a 7 point victory, but it was not a comfortable one. The Saints and Jags were locked in a low-scoring defensive battle all afternoon. New Orleans was able to take a touchdown lead deep in the game as they held off the Jags and escaped with the victory. We had a clean sweep on the picks in this matchup.
Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Our Picks: Baltimore (W ) – Cincinnati +11 (W ) – Under 48 (W )
Despite the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals have not won a game in 2019, they have been able to hang around in most games this year. Baltimore looked very impressive in their first couple weeks, but have lost their dominance. That is what led us to picking the Ravens to win and the Bengals to cover. Thankfully for our pick record, that is exactly what happened. Baltimore was out front most of the game, but the Bengals pulled off the backdoor cover in this game as well which led to another clean sweep on the picks for us.
Los Angeles Rams 7 San Francisco 49ers 20
Our Picks: LA Rams (L) – LA Rams -3 (L) – Over 50.5 (L)
To me, this one finally give the 49ers some legitimacy. I have yet to give San Francisco a ton of credit for their hot start, as their opponents have been of a lesser caliber than other have faced. The Rams are a good opponent, and San Francisco handled their business. Moving forward I intend on giving San Francisco a better look as they are proving to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.
Arizona Cardinals 34 Atlanta Falcons 33
Our Picks: Atlanta Falcons (L) – Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (L) – Under 52 (L)
Atlanta continues to be one of the most disappointing teams in the league in 2019. I really anticipated a comeback game against the Cardinals who are still trying to learn their way in the NFL after revamping their team. However, the comeback game was not meant to be. Arizona looked sharp and Atlanta did not. The Falcons almost completed the comeback, but missed an extra point to all but eliminate hope against the Cardinals. This one is a tough loss to swallow with the picks, but part of what makes betting NFL games so difficult.
Denver Broncos 16 Tennessee Titans 0
Our Picks: Tennessee Titans (L) – Tennessee Titans +2 (L) – Under 40 (W )
Tennessee has a lot of problems on the offensive side of the ball and this game highlighted just about every one of them. The Broncos completely shut down the Titans offense to the point that they changed out Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. Though the team responded well to Tannehill, they still could not put any points up on the scoreboard. Denver bounces back to 2-4 after dropping the first 4 games of the year, and the Titans fall down to 2-4 and their disappointing season continues.
New York Jets 24 Dallas Cowboys 22
Our Picks: Dallas Cowboys (L) – Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (L) – Over 43 (W )
This game upsets me. Not because I have any rooting interest in either team, but due to the fact that I did not account for Sam Darnold giving the Jets this much of a boost. My prediction was that it would take awhile for the Jets to get back into a rhythm with Darnold back at the helm. However, I was completely wrong and the Jets dominated the Cowboys en route to their first win of the season. Now that the Jets have an offense do yourselves a favor and check out the remainder of their schedule. There is potential there to make a push and erase this tough start. I’m not going to rule out a chance at a 9-7 record and finding a backdoor into the playoffs. Crazy? Probably.
Los Angeles Chargers 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Our Picks: LA Chargers (L) – LA Chargers -7 (L) – Under 41 (Push)
I really do feel bad for the players on this Charger team. I knew they don’t get a ton of fan support in Los Angeles, but I really didn’t know it was this bad. That entire stadium was packed with Steeler fans. Los Angeles is essentially playing 16 road games this season making their home record a completely useless stat. The Steelers came out strong in this one, and with the support of the California based fans, took care of business.
Green Bay Packers 23 Detroit Lions 22
Our Picks: Detroit Lions (L) – Detroit Lions +4 (W ) – Under 47 (W )
Where do I even start with this game? Detroit made enough plays to win this game on a level playing field. Sure they should have converted more redzone trips into touchdowns, and yes, good teams can overcome bad calls. But wow, this game was the poorest officiated game in the NFL that I have ever watched. Aaron Rodgers took care of business with the plays that he was given, but anyone watching that game knows that he was given more plays than he deserved. Detroit takes the loss, but they definitely deserved the win. For the Lions sake, I hope they play the rest of the season angry and continue taking the league by storm.