Week 5 is a perfect example of why sports gambling can be frustrating. The formula that worked for the first 4 weeks of the season got it’s butt kicked in Week 5, leading us to our first losing week of the season. Our upset picks didn’t pan out, and our favorite picks got picked apart. Our points totals also took a hit with some late scores. We finished the week in the red on both straight up picks and point totals. Our against the spread picks saved us in Week 5 as we finished with a 9-6 record.
Straight Up: 6-9 (50-27-1)
Against the Spread: 9-6 (46-32)
Points Totals: 6-9 (41-35-1)
Pick of the Week: Arizona (+3) over Cincinnati
Failure of the Week: Chicago (-6) over Oakland
Home Teams: 7-8 (7-8 ATS) – 34-43-1 (28-50)
Favorites: 9-6 (7-8 ATS) – 48-29-1 (33-45)
Over/Under: 8 OVER – 7 UNDER (35 O – 41 U – 2 P)
Weekly Game Breakdowns
Seattle 30 LA Rams 29
Our Picks: LA Rams (L) – LA Rams +1.5 (W ) – Over 49.5 (W )
We were treated to an amazing Thursday night game this week. When betting this one, the thought was that it would be close, but that the Rams experience in high level games would allow them to close out the close game. They had the chance, but they missed a last second field goal to win the game. Thankfully the Rams were still able to cover, and their were plenty of points to hit the over mark.
Cincinnati 23 Arizona 26
Our Picks: Arizona (W ) – Arizona +3 (W ) – Under 47.5 (L)
Arizona controlled most of this game, but they let the Bengals climb back into it late in the game. The Cardinals were able to kick a last second field goal to secure their first win of the season. We picked this one based on the upside we have seen in Arizona, and the lack thereof in Cincinnati. I don’t anticipate either of these team putting together a ton of wins, but Cincinnati is slightly worse than Arizona is this year.
Tennessee 7 Buffalo 14
Our Picks: Tennessee (L) – Tennessee -3 (L) – Under 38.5 (W )
Tennessee is a team that can best be described as Jekyll and Hyde – ish. They have been completely inconsistent, which makes them extremely difficult to pick this year. Buffalo’s defense completely stifled the Mariota-led offense. The Bills continue to win low-scoring, close affairs. I anticipate that Tennessee will remain difficult to pick, and Buffalo may be a much better team that most have expected.
Oakland 24 Chicago 21
Our Picks: Chicago (L) – Chicago -6 (L) – Under 40.5 (L)
This game hurt. Nothing we predicted came true, and on top of that, Chicago was our Lock of the Week. The Bears came out slow and sloppy, leading to a 17 point deficit at halftime. Chicago gave us hope in the second half as they stormed back to take a 21-17 lead, but ultimately let Oakland score a late touchdown to seal the game in London. Oakland now moves to 3-2, and I still don’t have a good beat on what this team is, and how good they really are. As far as Chicago is concerned, I think we all know what they are: All defense, crazy inconsistent offense.
New Orleans 31 Tampa Bay 24
Our Picks: New Orleans (W ) – New Orleans -3 (W ) – Over 46.5 (W )
This game was a simple one, that played out how we expected it would. It was a high scoring game, in which the Saints overpowered the Buccaneers in the end. Tampa Bay was able to stay within a score to complete the game, but throughout this match, the Saints were in control and I didn’t have much doubt that they would come home winners above the 3 point edge.
NY Giants 10 Minnesota 28
Our Picks: Minnesota (W ) – Minnesota -6 (W ) – Under 43.5 (W )
Despite Minnesota’s struggles, and the rise of Daniel Jones, this game showed that these two teams are still a ways apart. Minnesota is still a good football team, and New York still has some work to do. The Vikings opened up their playbook and finally put up some passing yards. The Giants had a hard time dealing with the Vikings stout defense and could only put 10 points up on the board. In a week of tough losses in the Sports Books, I’ll take a victory here and be happy it played out as expected.
Philadelphia 31 NY Jets 6
Our Picks: Philadelphia (W ) – Philadelphia -13.5 (W ) – Over 44 (L)
I was worried about this game when I picked the Eagles to cover the 13.5 point spread. Early on, that worry disappeared. Philly jumped out early, and it was clear that the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. Philadelphia has salvaged their season and are now tied for the division lead in the NFC East. The only disappointment in this game is that there weren’t enough points scored to hit the over for us.
Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 26 (OT)
Our Picks: Pittsburgh (L) – Pittsburgh +3.5 (W ) – Under 44.5 (L)
My Upset of the Week came so close to coming true. This game played out 95% of the way I anticipated it to, but the final score happened to land on the opposite side of money in the bank. Pittsburgh needed to keep it close throughout the game, which they did. They needed to slow down Lamar Jackson, and they did. However, they allowed the Ravens to send it to overtime, and they a critical turnover allowed Baltimore to kick a field goal and spoil the day. I still stand by this pick, but sometimes it just doesn’t go they way it would have.
Washington 7 New England 33
Our Picks: New England (W ) – New England -16 (W ) – Over 42.5 (L)
The entire first half of this game had me doubting the pick of New England at -16. However, the Patriots started playing like the Patriots in the 2nd half and they were able to pull away easily and cover the large spread. Had New England played like that in the first half, I am confident that we would have hit the over as well.
Carolina 34 Jacksonville 27
Our Picks: Jacksonville (L) – Jacksonville +3.5 (L) – Under 41 (L)
I was really riding the Gardner Minshew bandwagon rolling into this game. I thought that the Panthers were worse than they looked in their past two games, but it just didn’t play out that way. Jacksonville was playing from behind for most of the afternoon, and they just couldn’t pull ahead of the Panthers who seemed to have an answer for everything the Jags did. Unfortunately our upset pick in this game didn’t pan out and we got our butts kicked with this set of picks.
Houston 53 Atlanta 32
Our Picks: Houston (W ) – Houston -5 (W ) – Under 49 (L)
Man things are falling apart for this Falcons team in 2019. The Falcons kept it close for awhile, but the Texans racked up some late points to pull away with a monster final score. We correctly got Houston straight up and ATS, but our Under prediction had no chance.
LA Chargers 13 Denver 20
Our Picks: LA Chargers (L) – LA Chargers -6.5 (L) – Under 44.5 (W )
What is happening to this Charger team? Heading into 2019 I was very high on Los Angeles and thought that they would give the Chiefs a challenge in the division. So far, this through process and prediction has turned out to be completely wrong. The Chargers looked awful and Philip Rivers didn’t have a chance. One pick that saved us in this game was the Under. The Broncos are kings of the Under, and seems to continue to be a safe bet in Denver games.
Dallas 24 Green Bay 34
Our Picks: Dallas (L) – Dallas -3.5 (L) – Over 47 (W )
After last week’s Philadelphia game, I thought that the Packer’s defense was overrated and that the Eagles exposed some things that the Cowboys could take advantage of. That turned out to be a false idea, and the Packers controlled the Cowboys all day. This game was not nearly as close as the final score showed. Green Bay was in rhythm on offense all game, and this game was in hand after the first half.
Kansas City 13 Indianapolis 19
Our Picks: Kansas City (L) – Indianapolis +11 (W ) – Over 56.5 (L)
I don’t think their was a soul on this planet that thought the Chiefs would be held to 13 points at home. Indianapolis controlled this game by having a stellar run game which allowed them to control the clock. It was a dose of old school football that held Kansas City down and led them to their first loss of the season. I anticipated the Colts to keep it close, so I was happy watching most of the game. When I realized the Chiefs would not be coming back to win the game I had to take this win on the spread, realizing that the Straight Up pick was not coming through.
San Francisco 31 Cleveland 3
Our Picks: Cleveland (L) – Cleveland +3.5 (L) – Over 46.5 (L)
The last game of the week capped off a brutal week. I though that the Browns would come out with a ton of momentum after their big win against the Ravens last week. I thought that the 49ers were a tad overrated despite their 3-0 record entering this game. Wrong across the board. Cleveland looked clueless and could not put anything together in this contest. San Fran controlled this game from start to finish. Live betting was the only thing that saved a part of the bankroll in this game.