Week 4 was a wild week with a lot of upsets and an insane amount of road teams coming away with wins. Only 4 of the 15 games this week had a home winner. In 2018, Home Teams won 60% of the total games, so only seeing 4 out of 15 is extremely rare. Due to the upsets, we saw some mixed results on the picks. We still had winning records in all 3 of our categories, but the return was not as nice as it has been in previous weeks. Return on Investment for all 3 categories still nets positive returns, and we have yet to turn a loss in any category through 4 weeks. Our Upset of the Week won (Tennessee), and our Lock of the Week won (Seattle). Overall, considering all of the craziness, we can still call Week 4 a Win.
Straight Up: 9-6 (44-18-1)
Against the Spread: 8-7 (37-26)
Points Totals: 8-7 (35-26-2)
Pick of the Week: Tennessee (+4) over Atlanta
Failure of the Week: Baltimore (-7) over Cleveland
Home Teams: 4-11 (6-9 ATS) – 27-35-1 (21-42)
Favorites: 7-8 (5-10 ATS) – 39-23-1 (26-37)
Over/Under: 6 OVER – 9 UNDER (27 O – 34 U – 2 P)
Weekly Game Breakdowns
Green Bay 27 Philadelphia 34
Our Picks: Philadelphia (W ) – Philadelphia +4 (W ) – Under 46 (L)
Philadelphia needed this game in a bad way. If the Eagles were to drop this game they would find themselves at 1-3 and playing from behind in the division for many more weeks. Green Bay would have loved to stay perfect, but they were inefficient when it mattered the most. The Packers looked much better on offense than they have all year long, but their defense that was unbreakable through 3 games showed some cracks in the armor in giving up 34 to the Eagles.
Detroit 30 Kansas City 34
Our Picks: Kansas City (W ) – Detroit +7 (W ) – Over 55 (W )
Detroit gave Kansas City all that they could handle. Many though that the Chiefs would run away from the Lions early on, but Detroit actually had the advantage and momentum in this game for a large majority. A crazy third quarter filled with wild calls and fumbles for both teams made this game even more interesting. The Chiefs were able to orchestrate a late fourth quarter drive to seal the game, giving the Lions only 20 seconds to come up with a touchdown that they ultimately could not do. Kansas City moves to 4-0 and the Lions drop to 2-1-1.
Atlanta 10 Tennessee 24
Our Picks: Tennessee (W ) – Tennessee +4 (W ) – Over 45.5 (L)
Atlanta continues to be one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season. They drop to 1-3 and really didn’t compete with Tennessee in this game. The Titans man handled the Falcons and improved their record to 2-2 and get right back into the mix in the AFC South. Atlanta will need to get things figured out quickly, or they will find themselves out of the hunt early on.
Buffalo 10 New England 16
Our Picks: New England (W ) – New England -7.5 (L) – Under 42 (W )
This game was a dog fight. Early on, New England appeared to have a chance to run away with it and turn this into a blowout. However, the Bills defense proved to the rest of the NFL that they are a force to be reckoned with. This Bills team held the Patriots to a season low, and they are the first team to score an offensive touchdown on New England all year long. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East, but Buffalo appears to look like a serious wild card contender moving forward.
Indianapolis 24 Oakland 31
Our Picks: Indianapolis (L) – Oakland +7 (W ) – Under 45 (L)
Oakland started out strong and they never let up. Indianapolis may have been looking ahead to next week when they face the Chiefs because they did not look sharp. The Raiders stunned the favorite Colts by jumping out to a huge early lead. Jon Gruden’s team looked very capable in a hostile environment and has the Raiders sitting at a nice 2-2. Not bad for a team that was a complete trainwreck just a couple weeks ago.
Miami 10 LA Chargers 31
Our Picks: LA Chargers (W ) – LA Chargers -15.5 (W ) – Under 44 (W )
Miami is really bad. Los Angeles is a better team. Not a whole lot to talk about here. Miami will continue to lose, continue to not cover spreads, and could be considered one of the worst teams in league history.
NY Giants 24 Washington 3
Our Picks: NY Giants (W ) – NY Giants -3 (W ) – Over 49.5 (L)
Washington is a mess. They can’t stop anybody on defense, and their offensive unit was not synced up in the least bit. Case Keenum was benched in favor of Dwayne Haskins, who clearly was not prepared to lead this Washington unit against the Giants. For the Giants, Daniel Jones was able to get a divisional win at home, but he wasn’t overly impressive. He has the Giants back at 2-2 and in the middle of the division, but we will really see how good he is as he starts to play some tougher competition in weeks to come.
Baltimore 25 Cleveland 40
Our Picks: Baltimore (L) – Baltimore -7 (L) – Over 45 (W )
Cleveland came out in Week 4 ready to make a statement. On the road, as a 7 point dog, they were able to handle the Ravens easily and pull back into a tie for the division lead. Had they Browns lost, they would have been 2 games back of Baltimore and would have needed some help and a some strong wins to get back into it. However, thanks to the big win this week, and the Ravens dropping a game to the Chiefs a week ago, the two teams are tied at 2-2.
Houston 10 Carolina 16
Our Picks: Houston (L) – Houston -4.5 (L) – Under 47.5 (W )
The Kyle Allen era in Carolina has moved to 2-0 on the season. The Panthers came into this game as a 4.5 point dog on the road and they were able to contain the Texan offense most of the day and come away with the low scoring victory. Houston now finds themselves in a 4 way tie within the AFC South. Carolina, after dropping the first two games of the year, have improved to 2-2 and are right back in the middle of the NFC South.
LA Rams 40 Tampa Bay 55
Our Picks: LA Rams (L) – LA Rams -10 (L) – Over 49.5 (W )
Wow. This game was something else. Nobody, and I mean nobody, expected the Bucs to come into Los Angeles and hang 55 on the Rams. Tampa Bay was able to move the ball and score at will. Los Angeles was still able to put up 40 points thanks to Jared Goff throwing for 517 yards.
Arizona 10 Seattle 27
Our Picks: Seattle (W ) – Seattle -5.5 (W ) – Over 48 (L)
After dropping a home game to the Saints last week, the Seahawks got the win that they needed. Seattle dominated this game and cruised to victory. The Cardinals continue to learn a lot throughout the year, but the young team is still winless through 4 games this year.
Chicago 16 Minnesota 6
Our Picks: Minnesota (L) – Minnesota +2 (L) – Under 38 (W )
Chicago’s defense is for real. They punished the Viking offense all day long, racking up 6 sacks on Kirk Cousins. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bears lost Mitchell Trubisky to a dislocated shoulder. Chase Daniel was able to step into the role on Sunday and provided just enough for the Bears to get a gritty win at home in a low scoring affair. Chicago moves to 3-1 and sits tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North. Minnesota drops to 2-2 on the season.
Denver 24 Jacksonville 26
Our Picks: Jacksonville (W ) – Jacksonville +3 (W ) – Under 38.5 (L)
Jacksonville played themselves right back into the hunt for the AFC South title. They rallied behind Leonard Fournette who tallied 225 yards in the comeback victory. All teams in the AFC South are now sitting at 2-2, leaving the division wide open. For Denver, this marks the second time this season that they are left with a loss at home on a last-second field goal. The Broncos are 0-4 and have hopes dwindling for anything positive in the 2019 season.
New Orleans 12 Dallas 10
Our Picks: Dallas (L) – Dallas -3 (L) – Over 47 (L)
If you would have told me that New Orleans would not score a touchdown in this game and still come away with a win, I would have told you that you were crazy. But that’s exactly what happened on Sunday night. Last season, Dallas stopped New Orleans in their tracks and won a defensive battle. In 2019 the same thing happened, with reverse roles. New Orleans was able to stifle the potent Dallas offense and improve to 2-0 without Drew Brees.
Pittsburgh 27 Cincinnati 3
Our Picks: Pittsburgh (W ) – Cincinnati +3.5 (L) – Under 43.5 (W )
Pittsburgh cruised to their first victory of the season on Monday Night Football. Their gameplan was flawlessly executed as it got new quarterback Mason Rudolph in simple situations that allowed him to play to his strengths. On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers got to Andy Dalton all night and held the Bengals to only 3 points. Pittsburgh finally gets into the win column, and thanks to the Browns and Ravens, find themselves only 1 game back of the division lead, despite having a 1-3 record. Cincinnati drops to 0-4 and is now one of 5 teams without a win in 2019.