Detroit Lions v. Kansas City Chiefs
Surprisingly, both of these teams head into this Week 4 matchup undefeated. Kansas City for the most part was expected to win a lot of games, and it is no surprise that they are sitting 3-0 to start the season. The Lions, on the other hand, are fresh off of underdog victories against the Chargers and Eagles after playing to a tie with the Cardinals in Week 1. On paper, the Chiefs are a much better team. In reality, the Chiefs are a much better team as well. Patrick Mahomes looks unstoppable, and should be able to do what he pleases against this Lions defense who will likely be without Darius Slay and Mike Daniels. Detroit will have an opportunity to put up some points against this Chiefs defense who has not looked overly impressive. I anticipate this to be a shootout game with a lot of points scored. I just don’t think Detroit will have enough firepower to match the MVP and will fall just short of another upset win.
- Last Meeting – 2015 Week 8 (45-10 Chiefs Win)
- In home games, as the underdog, Detroit has hit the Under 6 consecutive times
- Kansas City is 2-8 in their last 10 road games against NFC opponents (2-6-2 ATS)
Straight up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Against the Spread: Detroit Lions +7
Over/Under: OVER 55
Atlanta Falcons v. Tennessee Titans
Both teams are in need of victories after less than impressive 1-2 starts to the season. Atlanta’s lone win came on a Sunday Night when they looked impressive against Philadelphia. Tennessee’s win came in Week 1 when they blew out the highly anticipated Cleveland Browns. For this game, I am looking at the matchup between the two styles. Atlanta is definitely a finesse team that can beat you with their speed. Tennessee is a physically dominant team that wants to wear you down and take advantage of you. Regardless of the outcome, one team comes away in the mix for their division, and the other falls behind and will need to claw themselves out of a deep hole to contend for the postseason.
- Last Meeting – 2015 Week 7 (10-7 Falcons Win)
- Tennessee has hit the OVER in Week 4 games for 10 straight years
- Atlanta is only 3-4 as the Home Favorite in their past 7 games (2-5 ATS)
Straight up Pick: Tennessee Titans
Against the Spread: Tennessee Titans +4
Over/Under: OVER 45.5
Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots
Even though both teams enter this game with perfect records of 3-0, most people believe that the Patriots are a far superior team than the Bills. I tend to agree with that sentiment. Neither team has played anyone significant as the Patriots opponents have a combined record of 0-9, and the Bills opponents are sitting at 1-8. For both teams, they have a chance to make a statement. The Bills want to prove to the world that they are not simply going to let the Pats run away with the division. The Patriots want to prove that they really are as good as they have looked through 3 weeks. New England will be favored heavily in this game. I think Buffalo could give Tom Brady a bit of a test, but ultimately the Patriots will come away with the win and keep rolling on with their perfect record.
- Last Meeting – 2018 Week 16 (24-12 Patriots Win)
- Buffalo has lost 5 straight games against the Patriots (1-4 ATS)
- The last time New England lost in Buffalo was in 2011 when the Bills won 34-31
Straight up Pick: New England Patriots
Against the Spread: New England Patriots -7.5
Over/Under: UNDER 42
Indianapolis Colts v. Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis has shown the rest of the NFL that they are more than just Andrew Luck. The rest of the team was built up far more than others anticipated, and that is why the Colts are sitting at 2-1 tied for the division lead. The Raiders are much more of what we anticipated. They sit at 1-2, losers of 2 straight after an upset win in Week 1. Indianapolis should have the edge in this matchup as they really do have the better all around team. Oakland will have the opportunity to come out as a favorite to cover this spread. It looks to be inflated because not a lot of people have faith in this Oakland team. Expect the Raiders to keep this one close, but ultimately fall to the Colts and Jacoby Brissett.
- Last Meeting – 2018 Week 8 (42-28 Colts Win)
- Oakland is 2-8 in Week 4 games over the past 10 years (2-8 ATS)
- Indianapolis is 1-6 vs AFC West opponents in their past 7 games (2-5 ATS)
Straight up Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Against the Spread: Oakland Raiders +7
Over/Under: UNDER 45
Miami Dolphins v. Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles definitely needs a game to recover after a couple heartbreaking losses. The Chargers were expecting to give the Chiefs a run for their money for the AFC West, but after losses against the Lions and Texans, Los Angeles is in a bit of trouble and already losing sight of the Chiefs. The worst team in the league should give the Chargers that much needed break and W. The Dolphins have looked overmatched and outpowered in all facets of the game so far this year. I expect nothing more out of them this weekend as they face a potentially strong team.
- Last Meeting – 2017 Week 2 (19-17 Dolphins Win)
- Miami has lost 6 straight games overall (0-6 ATS)
- As the Road Favorite, the Chargers are 7-2 in their past 9 games (5-4 ATS)
Straight up Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Against the Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -15.5
Over/Under: UNDER 44
New York Giants v. Washington Redskins
Daniel Jones has given the Giants fan base a breath of fresh air, as he orchestrated a comeback with last week against the Buccaneers. The Giants easily could have fallen to 0-3, but Jones looked very impressive and helped New York get into the win column. Washington, on the other hand, has not shown any signs of crawling out of the basement of the NFL. Many people are calling for Dwayne Haskins to be promoted into the starting QB role after Case Keenum has not gotten the job done. I would love nothing more than to see a Daniel Jones v. Dwayne Haskins showdown in this matchup. However, I believe that Keenum will start once again, and will once again lead the Redskins down the path to a loss.
- Last Meeting – 2018 Week 14 (40-16 Giants Win)
- New York is 1-6-1 Against the Spread at Home over their past 7 games
- This will be the 12th straight game that Washington will be listed as the Underdog (2-9 Straight Up, 5-6 ATS)
Straight up Pick: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants -3
Over/Under: OVER 49.5
Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns
Despite dropping a game to the Chiefs last weekend, the Ravens have looked incredibly impressive. Lamar Jackson has led this offense well and have the Ravens poised to do some damage in the AFC. The Browns have not looked nearly as impressive and roll into this matchup with a 1-2 record. This game should be a very important early season matchup however. If the Browns can pull things together and get a win they will even their record with the Ravens and give some competition to the AFC North. If the Ravens come away with the win, they will give themselves a 2 game advantage in the division and will work on extending that division lead as the rest of the season progresses.
- Last Meeting – 2018 Week 17 (26-24 Ravens Win)
- Cleveland split the season series with the Ravens in 2018 (2-0 ATS), prior to that they dropped the last 5 against Baltimore going 0-5 ATS as well
- In their past 6 games as a Home Favorite, the Ravens are 5-1, however they are 1-5 ATS in those games
Straight up Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Against the Spread: Baltimore Ravens -7
Over/Under: OVER 45
Houston Texans v. Carolina Panthers
Kyle Allen looked impressive in his start last week for the Carolina Panthers against the Arizona Cardinals. Allen will get another start against the Texans this week as Cam Newton will not play this week either. The Panthers will be tested far more in Week 4, as the Texans are a much better team than the Cardinals. DeShaun Watson has looked extremely impressive and looks to continue his hot start to the season. Houston will be favored in this matchup, but the end result will be determined by which Panther team shows up. Will it be the explosive and precise team we saw in Week 3, or will it be the sluggish and sloppy one that we witnessed in Weeks 1 and 2?
- Last Meeting – 2015 Week 2 (24-17 Panthers Win)
- Carolina has only won 3 out of their past 12 road games, going 4-8 ATS
- In the past 10 years, the Houston Texans are 8-2 in Week 4 games (8-2 ATS)
Straight up Pick: Houston Texans
Against the Spread: Houston Texans -4.5
Over/Under: UNDER 47.5