Week 3 was a perfect example of why sports gambling is a long game and not a quick payout. Through the Sunday afternoon games, our picks were playing out in our advantage in a big way. We sat at a 8-1 SU record, and were 7-2 ATS. Then the Evening games kicked in, and our record took a dive. Our picks were 1-4 SU, and 1-4 ATS during the evening slate. We redeemed ourselves by picking the primetime games correctly. When the entirety of Week 3 was in the books, we stayed in the green in all 3 major betting categories. We finished with an 11-5 record SU, 10-6 ATS, and 8-6-2 on the point totals.
Straight Up: 11-5 (35-12-1)
Against the Spread: 10-6 (29-19)
Points Totals: 8-6-2 (27-19-2)
Pick of the Week – Detroit +6 (+225 ML) Over Philadelphia
Failure of the Week – Seattle -4.5 (-220 ML) Over New Orleans
Home Teams: 9-7 (5-11 ATS) – 23-24-1 (15-33)
Favorites: 11-5 (7-9 ATS) – 32-15-1 (21-27)
Over/Under: 9 Over – 5 Under – 2 Push (21 O – 25 U – 2 P)
Weekly Game Breakdowns
Jacksonville 20 Tennessee 7
Our Picks: Tennessee (L) – Tennessee -2 (L) – Under 39 (W )
This game truly was a tough one to watch. There were penalty flags on what seemed like every single play. Jacksonville didn’t look overly impressive on the offensive side of the ball, but they were able to outplay the Titans offense, who couldn’t get anything going at all. What really helped the Jags, is jumping out to a 14-0 lead early on, led by quarterback Gardner Minshew. Minshew directed the Jags to a couple early touchdowns that the Titans couldn’t come back from. For the Titans, Marcus Mariota really couldn’t get anything going against the Jacksonville defense. His statline was pretty good, but most of that came late in the game when it was already out of reach. Both teams now sit at 1-2, a game back from both the Texans and Colts in the AFC South.
Philadelphia 24 Detroit 27
Our Picks: Detroit (W ) – Detroit +6 (W ) – Under 45.5 (L)
Detroit was able to pull out another gritty, sloppy game, this time against an injury ridden Eagles team. Philadelphia looked sloppy throughout, getting critical penalties, dropping crucial passes, and turning the ball over to the Lions at key moments. Despite all of the errors committed by the Eagles, they still had a chance to win it at the end. It appeared that Detroit wanted to let the Eagles back in the game, as they had several opportunities to ice the game and didn’t convert. In the end, the Lions made another defensive stop at the end of the game to clinch a gritty one and come out “undefeated”. Philly drops to 1-2 and sits a couple games back of the 3-0 Cowboys. Detroit improves to 2-0-1, and trail the 3-0 Packers by a half game.
Buffalo 21 Cincinnati 17
Our Picks: Buffalo (W ) – Cincinnati +6 (W ) – Under 44 (W )
Even though this game ended up decided by a 4 point margin, the Bills were really in control for most of it. Cincinnati couldn’t get many stops, and the Bills offense was able to control the game throughout. What slowed the Bills down and made this one a close game, was the mistakes they made. They fumbled in the red zone and threw a terrible interception to keep the Bengals alive. Josh Allen was able to guide this team to a clinching drive late in the game to seal it off and keep the Bills undefeated at 3-0. Buffalo finds themselves tied with the Patriots atop the AFC East. Cincinnati is now at the bottom of the AFC North tied with Pittsburgh at 0-3.
Dallas 31 Miami 6
Our Picks: Dallas (W ) – Dallas -22.5 (W ) – Over 47 (L)
Coming into this game, most thought that Dallas would run away with it early and Miami would get blown out again. The final score was right where a lot of people expected it to be, but the Dolphins were in this one for at least the first half. At halftime, the Cowboys only held a 10-6 lead. Once the second half started though, the Cowboys were able to play up to their standard. All of the sloppiness from the beginning of the afternoon disappeared, and they played crisp and sound football to finish off the Dolphins in an appropriate fashion. Dallas improves to 3-0 and sits atop the NFC East. Miami now falls to 0-3 and their quest for the number 1 pick in the 2020 draft is still alive.
Green Bay 27 Denver 16
Our Picks: Green Bay (W ) – Green Bay -8 (W ) – Under 43 (Push)
Green Bay took care of business on their home field, but it was not the dominant performance that many Packer fans had hoped for. For most of the afternoon, Denver was in this game and within a score. Denver, however committed some critical turnovers that led to Packer points and sealed the victory for Aaron Rodgers and company. Rodgers has yet to have a dominant performance in 2019, but he hasn’t necessarily had to. The Packer defense continues to prove that it is one of the best in the league. The Packers improve to 3-0 and sit atop the NFC North, a division that has proved to be tough competition for the rest of the league so far. Denver falls to 0-3 and are reeling as they try to figure out what is going so wrong.
Indianapolis 27 Atlanta 24
Our Picks: Indianapolis (W ) – Indianapolis -1.5 (W ) – Under 47 (L)
Atlanta is once again, getting bit by the injury bug and it is slowing down what could have been one of the tougher teams in the league. The injuries, compiled with a plethora of penalties held the Falcons back and let the Colts come away with another victory. For the Colts, Jacoby Brissett continue to hold serve and prove to the league that the Colts are still a contender with or without Andrew Luck. Indianapolis now sits atop the AFC South tied with Houston at 2-1. Atlanta, however drops to 1-2 and is in a 3-way tie for 2nd place with the Panthers and Buccaneers in the NFC South.
Kansas City 33 Baltimore 28
Our Picks: Kansas City (W ) – Baltimore +7 (W ) – Over 53 (W )
Coming into this one, everyone expected a ton of offense, and that’s exactly what we got. The two teams totaled 61 points, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson putting on a very entertaining show. The Chiefs started off slow, and it appeared that we may not get the fireworks that we anticipated, but after the first quarter the offenses went to work. Kansas City caught fire and extended their lead to 30-13 at one point. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense did not let up, clawing their way back into the game before ultimately falling 5 points shy of the favored Chiefs. Kansas City improves to 3-0, while the Baltimore Ravens fall to 2-1. Both teams remain on top of their respective divisions through Week 3.
Minnesota 34 Oakland 14
Our Picks: Minnesota (W ) – Minnesota -8.5 (W ) – Under 43.5 (L)
Minnesota jumped out early against the Raiders and they never looked back. The Vikings started off the game 21-0, and the Oakland Raiders were pretty much done at that point. The Vikings continue to dominate on the ground, as Dalvin Cook had another monster game finishing with 110 yards rushing. Minnesota improves their record to 2-1 as they try to keep pace within the NFC North. Oakland falls to 1-2 and will continue to fall further behind the red hot Kansas City Chiefs.
New England 30 NY Jets 14
Our Picks: New England (W ) – New England -24 (L) – Under 43.5 (L)
We all knew that New England was going to run away with this game before it even started. The Jets were out manned and the Patriots are just too good. New England started out the game 20-0 and this one could have very easily gotten worse. The Patriots didn’t look extremely crisp in their play, which is probably why they didn’t cover the massive spread, but they will be happy to leave with a 16 point victory. The Pats improve to 3-0, but the 3 teams they have played now have a combined record of 0-9. The Jets continue to fall further behind as they have yet to find the win column at 0-3.
Arizona 20 Carolina 38
Our Picks: Arizona (L) – Arizona +3 (L) – Over 46.5 (W )
Many people thought that this was the opportunity for this young Cardinal team to finally get their first win. At home, with Cam Newton out, against a struggling Panthers team, this was a huge opportunity. However, backup quarterback Kyle Allen for the Panthers had different plans. Kyle Allen played a superb game, throwing for 261 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kyler Murray, on the other hand, struggled against the Carolina defense. He was sacked 8 times and threw 2 interceptions. Carolina controlled this game throughout and get a big confidence booster after starting the season 0-2. Carolina improves to 1-2, while the Cardinals now drop to 0-2-1.
Tampa Bay 31 NY Giants 32
Our Picks: Tampa Bay (L) – NY Giants +7 (W ) – Over 48 (W )
Daniel Jones started off his New York Giants career with a bang. He played up to the moment and he was in control of the Giants offense all afternoon. Jones passed for 336 yards and 4 total touchdowns. Though Jones had a stellar day, the Buccaneers let throughout most of the game. Tampa Bay actually had a chance to win the game, but missed a last second field goal, cementing the Giants come from behind win and solidifying the decision to bench Eli Manning for Daniel Jones. Both teams now sit at 1-2 heading into Week 4.
LA Chargers 20 Houston 27
Our Picks: LA Chargers (L) – LA Chargers -3 (L) – Under 47.5 (W )
Los Angeles certainly did not envision their 2019 season starting off with a 1-2 record, but that is the reality of the situation, and the Chargers now have a lot of work ahead of them if they want to catch the Kansas City Chiefs. Houston, behind quarterback Deshaun Watson, were able to take advantage of the Chargers and come away with a 7 point road victory. Watson had a fantastic day finishing with 351 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Los Angeles had opportunities to comeback and win this game, but critical drops and fumbles sealed their fate and allowed the Texans to come away with the victory. Los Angles is now 1-2, while the Texans improve to 2-1.
San Francisco 24 Pittsburgh 20
Our Picks: San Francisco (W ) – San Francisco -7 (L) – Over 44 (Push)
The Steelers are in a lot of trouble, and help doesn’t seem to be on the way any time soon. The storied franchise finds themselves in an 0-3 hole as they were not able to top the young San Francisco 49ers in their first game after the Ben Roethlisberger injury. Both teams were incredibly sloppy throughout the game, but Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers found a way to top the depleted Steeler squad. San Fran now sits tied atop the NFC West with the Rams at 3-0. Pittsburgh, on the other, hand are tied with the Bengals for the worst record in the AFC North.
Seattle 27 New Orleans 33
Our Picks: Seattle (L) – Seattle -4.5 (L) – Over 45 (W )
This game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates. New Orleans came out and appeared to be unfazed by the loss of their leader, Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater played well enough on the road to jump out to a big lead over the Seahawks early. Seattle was playing catch up the entire game, and though Russell Wilson made a valiant effort to get the Seahawks within a reasonable margin, it was too little too late. Many people thought that the Saints would take a huge step back when Brees went down, but the rest of the team was able to step up and hold serve. With 5 weeks remaining until Brees can return to action, the Saints will need to continue to play like this if they want to keep the team afloat and stay near the top of the conference by the time Drew Brees returns.
Cleveland 13 LA Rams 20
Our Picks: LA Rams (W ) – LA Rams -3 (W ) – Under 49 (W )
This game came down to the final play, in which the Rams were able to intercept a Baker Mayfield pass with 27 seconds remaining to seal their victory. The defensive effort of the Rams appeared to be the deciding factor in coming home with the victory. Los Angeles was able to pressure Mayfield all night and kept the Browns offense out of sync. The Browns proved that they could hang with one of the best teams in the league, but their offense continues to struggle. Freddie Kitchens made a couple coaching errors from the sidelines, and according to his comments, takes responsibility for the loss. Cleveland drops to 1-2 on the season, and the Rams improve to 3-0 heading into Week 4.
Washington 15 Chicago 31
Our Picks: Chicago (W ) – Chicago -4 (W ) – Under 41.5 (L)
The Washington defense is porous. They have not been able to stop anyone all season long, and their inefficiencies were highlighted on Monday Night as they went up against a struggling Chicago offense. Chicago was able to move the ball all night, and put up more than enough points to secure this victory early. Offensively, Washington was not much better. They started off the night by throwing a pick 6. Case Keenum threw 3 interceptions, and the Redskins turned the ball over a total of 6 times. Chicago continues to impress on the defensive side of the ball and will be their strong point as they progress through the rest of their schedule. Washington now sits at 0-3 at the bottom of the NFC East. Chicago improves to 2-1 in an NFC North division that has all 4 teams above .500.